Thursday, February 18, 2016

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR: Can-Am/Gatorade/Budweiser Duel No.2

Now that we've got the rules down, let's get right to it. Just a glance at the line-up for Duel #2 and it's impossible to ignore the JGR Toyotas. They all start in the top four. However, as glaring as they are there is also intrigue at the bottom.


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TOP PICKS
  • Matt Kenseth - $9,800 - Unfortunately, I can't label anyone other than a Gibbs Toyota a top contender. JJ is there but he has no help. Kurt is strong, but his teammates are Danica and Vickers, who is subbing for Tony and starting last. Matt is my pick of the three. In the last two duels he's participated in, Matt has led over half the laps. That includes a win and a 17th last year in which he got shuffled back late. 
VALUE PICKS
  • Brian Vickers - $6,100 - So after shitting on Vickers in my synopsis above, he is impossible to ignore when it comes to value. He is $100 more than minimum, starts last and is in a car with capable speed. If he gets comfortable he should be in line for a solid top 10 finish. This race is not nearly as stacked as duel 1 once you get past the JGR cars. 11 of the 22 cars entered would be considered non-contenders at any track other than Daytona or Talladega. 
LINEUPS: 50/50 League (Safer bets) 
  • The A's Picks
    • Matt Kenseth - $9,800
    • Jamie McMurray - $8,600
    • Kyle Busch - $9,900
    • Brian Vickers - $6,100
    • Martin Truex Jr. - $9,200
    • David Gilliland - $6,300
  • Analysis: This lineup is anchored by each end of the starting lineup. I expect either Matt or Kyle to go out and lead a bunch of laps early and hang around until the end. Truex and Vickers start in the last two positions and both have some speed, if not top notch. while Truex doesn't drive a Chevy anymore, I expect him to at least use Vickers to get to the front. Gilliland is a solid restrictor plate driver with finishes of 8th, 13th and 12th in his last three duel appearances. Rounding it out is McMurray, who has a solid car and has been consistent, posting finishes of 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in his past 4 duels. 


LINEUPS: Tournament League (Riskier bets)
  • The A's Picks (EDIT: Larson to the rear for back-up car, sticking with him)
    • Kyle Larson - $8,800 
    • Jamie McMurray - $8,600
    • Matt Kenseth - $9,800
    • Carl Edwards - $9,500
    • Casey Mears - $7,100
    • Brian Vickers - $6,100
  • Analysis: This line-up is more a shot in the dark than a solid Tournament team. Kyle Larson has been atrocious at Daytona. IF he finishes, it's usually not well. The guy is a legitimate talent though, and I will gamble that he has figured something out. He finished 4th in the Unlimited last weekend. If Larson is going places, he's likely bringing McMurray with him. McMurray led 14 laps in the Unlimited this past Saturday and is a former 500 champ. Casey Mears' starting spot is scary, But there's a lot of lonely Chevy's in the field so he could get hooked up with someone with speed (JJ?). I still need to cover the JGR entries, and Vickers remains too good to pass up.  

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